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WYNN RESORTS LTD (WYNN)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 2025 operating revenue rose to $1.83B (+$140M YoY), with consolidated Adjusted Property EBITDAR up 8% YoY to $570.1M; GAAP diluted EPS was $0.85 and adjusted diluted EPS $0.86 .
  • Versus Wall Street, revenue beat consensus, but EPS and EBITDA missed: revenue $1.83B vs $1.77B*, EPS $0.86 (adjusted) vs $1.15*, EBITDA $463M vs $540M* (SPGI) — driven by interest expense and non‑operating items, while segment margins mixed (Las Vegas hold headwind; Macau VIP hold tailwind) .
  • Macau strength (mass volumes + VIP hold) and continued Las Vegas share gains offset softer Boston; Board declared a $0.25 dividend (consistent with Q1 and Q2) .
  • Near-term catalysts: continued Macau premium mass lead, strong Q4 Las Vegas group/RevPAR trajectory, and visible progress at Wynn Al Marjan Island as management underscores potential first-mover advantage in a greenfield UAE market .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Macau delivered Adjusted Property EBITDAR of $308.3M on ~$1.00B operating revenue (30.8% margin), aided by higher-than-normal VIP holds and strong mass volumes; Wynn Palace revenue +22% YoY and EBITDAR +23% YoY .
  • Las Vegas continued to take gaming market share, with casino revenues up ~10% YoY; August set an all‑time monthly EBITDA record; strategy to protect ADR by accepting lower occupancy preserved profitability .
  • Management tone confident on UAE: “With no competing operations announced to date, Wynn Al Marjan Island will be the only integrated resort in what many analysts are predicting will be a $5 billion-plus GGR market” .

What Went Wrong

  • EPS and EBITDA missed consensus despite top-line beat; GAAP other income/expense and interest burden weighed on EPS; Las Vegas EBITDA impacted by unfavorable hold (~$8M headwind) .
  • Encore Boston Harbor saw revenue -1% YoY and EBITDAR -7% YoY with table drop -6.7% and win % below prior year; margins compressed to 27.6% .
  • ADR/RevPAR pressure in Macau (ADR down 11–25% YoY; RevPAR down ~11–25% YoY), with one day of closure from Typhoon Ragasa and lower VIP win at Wynn Macau .

Financial Results

Consolidated Performance (sequential trend)

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenues ($USD Billions)$1.70 $1.74 $1.83
Diluted EPS ($)$0.69 $0.64 $0.85
Adjusted EPS ($)$1.07 $1.09 $0.86
Adjusted Property EBITDAR ($USD Millions)$532.9 $552.4 $570.1

Q3 vs Prior Year and Consensus

MetricQ3 2024Q3 2025 ActualS&P Consensus*Surprise
Revenues ($USD Billions)$1.69 $1.83 $1.77*Beat
Diluted EPS ($)$(0.29) $0.85 ——
Adjusted EPS ($)$0.90 $0.86 $1.15*Miss
EBITDA (SPGI) ($USD Millions)—$463*$540*Miss

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment Breakdown (Q3 2025 vs Q3 2024)

SegmentOperating Revenues Q3'24 ($MM)Operating Revenues Q3'25 ($MM)Adj. Property EBITDAR Q3'24 ($MM)Adj. Property EBITDAR Q3'25 ($MM)
Wynn Palace$519.8 $635.5 $162.3 $200.3
Wynn Macau$352.0 $365.5 $100.6 $108.0
Las Vegas$607.2 $621.0 $202.7 $203.4
Encore Boston Harbor$214.1 $211.8 $63.0 $58.4

Segment Margin Comparison (EBITDAR %)

Segment EBITDAR Margin %Q2 2025Q3 2025
Las Vegas36.8% 32.8%
Macau (combined)28.7% 30.8%
Encore Boston Harbor29.6% 27.6%

KPIs (selected)

KPIQ3 2024Q3 2025
Wynn Palace ADR ($)$295 $221
Wynn Palace RevPAR ($)$289 $217
Wynn Macau ADR ($)$233 $207
Wynn Macau RevPAR ($)$230 $205
Las Vegas Occupancy (%)89.0 85.7
Las Vegas ADR ($)$495 $505
Las Vegas RevPAR ($)$441 $433
EBH Table Drop ($MM)$347.1 $324.0

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Dividend per shareQuarterly$0.25 (Q2 2025) $0.25 (Q3 2025) Maintained
Encore Tower Remodel2026Begin Spring 2026; ~$330M cost Expect ~80,000 room nights lost in 2026; rate to offset Added impact detail
Macau Concession CAPEXFY 2025$200–$250M $200–$250M Maintained
UAE Equity Contribution RemainingMulti‑year$600–$675M (remaining share) $525–$625M (including Janui) Lowered range
LiquidityAs of Q3WRF revolver availability $1.24B; WM Cayman II $350.7M (Q2) WRF $1.23B; WM Cayman II $1.36B available (post accordion to $2.5B eq.) Increased WM revolver availability

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1 & Q2)Current Period (Q3)Trend
Las Vegas pricing/ADR strategyPreserve ADR vs occupancy; strong retail; RevPAR +1% in Q2 Continued share gains; record August EBITDA; ADR premium sustained; RevPAR growth starting in Q4 Positive momentum; ADR maintained, occupancy lower
Macau competitive dynamics“Hand‑to‑hand combat,” stable reinvestment; event center engineering underway Premium segment leading; VIP hold benefit ~$23M; margins viewed as outcome of revenue/reinvestment/cost Premium-led; disciplined reinvestment
Tariffs/macroTariffs a consideration in LV sourcing; macro uncertainty noted Macro/geopolitical uncertainty noted; optimistic outlook Manageable headwind
UAE developmentTower reaching 61st floor; strong receptivity; buybacks program Topping out imminent; Janui by Aman announced; first‑mover advantage emphasized Accelerating; optionality increasing
Capital AllocationBuybacks $158M in Q2; dividend recurring Dividend maintained; opportunistic buyback grid not triggered in Q3 Shareholder returns steady

Management Commentary

  • “Wynn Las Vegas continued to see notable gaming market share gains… resulting in EBITDA growth on a hold‑adjusted basis of 3% to $211 million… In fact, in August, the property set an all‑time monthly EBITDA record.” .
  • “Macau also delivered very strong results… including $23 million of VIP hold benefits. Mass volumes were particularly strong, up 15% year‑on‑year.” .
  • “With no competing operations announced to date, Wynn Al Marjan Island will be the only integrated resort in what many analysts are predicting will be a $5 billion‑plus GGR market.” .
  • “Unfavorable hold negatively impacted [Las Vegas] EBITDA in the quarter by just under $8 million.” .
  • “Our recurring dividend highlights our focus on and continued commitment to prudently returning capital to shareholders.” .

Q&A Highlights

  • Las Vegas demand and pricing: Management has not seen pushback on premium pricing; focus is high perceived value vs nickel‑and‑diming; ADR premium held; F1 weekend maintained three‑night minimum and premium rates .
  • Macau reinvestment: No notable uptick in promotions; reinvestment calibrated to revenue; margins managed as an outcome, not a target .
  • UAE economics: Base case assumed two competitors and $3–$5B GGR; with no announced competition, base case likely conservative; strong one‑to‑one marketing already underway .
  • Capital returns: Not programmatic buyers; use price‑based grid; if stock retraces, will resume buybacks; dividend maintained .

Estimates Context

  • Q3 2025 vs consensus: Revenue beat ($1.83B vs $1.77B*), EPS missed ($0.86 adjusted vs $1.15*), EBITDA missed ($463M* vs $540M*) — mix of segment holds (LV headwind; Macau tailwind), higher OPEX and sizable interest/other expense impacted EPS .
  • Q4 2025 preview: Consensus revenue ~$1.83B*, EPS ~$1.48*; management flagged strong Q4 start in Las Vegas with group compression supporting rates and RevPAR .
MetricQ3 2025 ActualQ3 2025 Consensus*SurpriseQ4 2025 Consensus*
Revenue ($USD Billions)$1.83 $1.77*Beat$1.83*
Adjusted EPS ($)$0.86 $1.15*Miss$1.48*
EBITDA (SPGI) ($USD Millions)$463*$540*Miss$586*

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Top-line strength with Macau and Las Vegas engines intact; expect narrative to focus on Macau premium mass durability and LV group-led rate compression through Q4 .
  • Mixed print vs Street: revenue beat but EPS/EBITDA miss; watch estimate revisions skewed by interest expense and non‑operating items vs non‑GAAP EBITDAR used operationally .
  • Las Vegas strategy is working: ADR premium and market share gains despite lower occupancy; F1 programming and rates should support Q4 RevPAR .
  • Macau momentum: VIP hold helped Q3, but management emphasis remains on profitable mass volumes and disciplined reinvestment; margin outlook tied to revenue and spend management .
  • Dividend maintained and opportunistic buyback framework intact; buybacks likely on drawdowns given price-based grid .
  • UAE first‑mover advantage increasingly visible; lowered remaining equity range ($525–$625M) enhances capital flexibility; additional land bank optionality (Janui by Aman) could be additive .
  • Near-term trading: Revenue beat vs EPS miss may drive mixed reactions; focus on Q4 Las Vegas commentary and Macau trend data; medium term, Al Marjan optionality and premium-mass Macau exposure underpin thesis .

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.